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Premier David Eby, finance minister lay out potential $69 billion impact of U.S. tariffs on B.C.

The U.S. is B.C.'s number 1 trading partner, receiving 54.2. per cent of exports, followed by China at 14.1 per cent and Japan at 11.1 per cent.

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With U.S. president-elect Donald Trump set to be sworn in on Monday, Premier David Eby has released his long-awaited mandate letters for ministers with a focus on addressing the threats of punishing 25 per cent tariffs by the incoming American administration.

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“We’re less than one week away from the inauguration of president-elect Trump, who has made repeated declarations of economic war on Canada and British Columbia,” said Eby, expressing his belief that Trump’s threats are “bizarre” and push the province, and Canada, away from their largest trading partner.

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“This is a challenging and serious threat and we wanted to share with you our best information about what we understand this threat means for British Columbians.”

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Currently the U.S. receives 54.2 per cent of B.C. exports. The province’s second largest trading partners is China at 14.1 per cent. Japan is third at 11.1 per cent.

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According to forecasts released by Finance Minister Brenda Bailey, there could be 124,000 fewer jobs in the province by 2028 if the tariffs were put in place. These would be concentrated in the natural resource, manufacturing and retail sectors, with the province’s GDP declining by 0.6 per cent in both 2025 and 2026.

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“This would include forestry, wood manufacturing, paper manufacturing, metal manufacturing, as well as in mining and oil and gas. There would also be job losses in the transportation and retail sectors,” said Bailey.

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Overall, the province could face a cumulative hit of $69 billion to its real GDP between now and 2028. Corporate profits could be lowered by up to $6.1 billion, while government revenue projections could lower by $2.5 billion.?The unemployment rate could also increase to 7.1 per cent by 2026 compared to current projections of 5.8 per cent.

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Eby saids he has told his ministers to review all spending in their portfolios in an effort to find savings that can be used to reinforce front-line services. One key policy that could be scrapped is the $500 rebate for British Columbians promised during the recent election campaign.

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“In terms of the rebate, in terms of any government program, our No. 1 priority right now is protecting B.C. families from this threat, ensuring the government’s in a position to support people and to make sure that we’re delivering on our commitment to British Columbians, to protect them and support them in prosperity, and that’s what we’re going to do,” the premier said when asked about the rebate.

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He reiterated his support for Ottawa’s position that all options remain on the table for responding to tariffs, including a potential export ban on the sale of B.C.’s critical minerals and the shut off of electricity flowing across the border.

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One of the other actions Eby said his government will take is working to reduce internal trade barriers between provinces. A recent report by the National Bank of Canada found B.C.’s own restrictions on exports to other jurisdictions within Canada is equivalent to a tariff of 23 per cent.

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The premier said Energy Minister Adrian Dix has met with his counterpart in Alberta to talk about lowering internal trade barriers on the flow of electricity between the two provinces, a topic B.C.’s neighbour has been reluctant to discuss in the past.

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Dix has also been told to brief American officials on the negative impact of tariffs, expand existing markets and finding new ones for B.C. energy, and creating a contingency plan for B.C. Hydro and other exporters in the event tariffs are imposed.

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Forests Minister Ravi Parmar and Agriculture Minister Lana Popham have been given much the same job in their portfolios, with Parmar set to undertake a review of B.C. Timber Sales while Popham will focus on improving food security.

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When it comes to finding new markets, Eby said countries like Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and India will be key as they represent some of the province’s largest trading partners outside the U.S.

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Jobs Minister Diana Gibson and Rick Glumac, minister of state for trade, have been told to expand those markets through the trade diversification strategy, starting with South Korea.

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“I see two challenges for us in relation to trade. We are dependent on two countries that, right now, are in intense disagreement between each other and, as well, are in positions and conducting themselves in ways that cause concern globally, the United States and China,” said Eby.

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“We’re finding ways to work together to diversify that trade relationship so we’re less dependent on these two countries that clearly, right now, are a source of similar global instability.”

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Donald Trump’s tariff threat could apply to more than $25 billion worth of B.C. goods

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Latest provincial statistics show how much B.C. has to lose if U.S. president Donald Trump makes good on his threat to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all goods it imports from Canada.

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According to latest B.C. Stats data, $49.7 billion worth of B.C. goods were exported around the world in the year ending November 2024.?Of that amount, 53 per cent – or $26.4 billion – went to the United States, making the U.S. by far B.C.’s biggest trading partner.

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The second largest trading partner was China, which bought $7.8 billion of goods in the same period, followed by Japan that purchased $5.1 billion.

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B.C.’s biggest export is energy, worth $14.7 billion for the year ending Nov. 2024. This amount was 17.6 per cent less than the previous year, due in part to a 26 per cent drop in the price of coal.

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Wood products (including pulp and paper) totalled $10.6 billion for the period, machinery and equipment totalled $7 billion, metallic minerals (like copper) totalled $6.6 billion, agriculture and food products including seafood $5.3 billion, and chemicals and chemical product exports $1.4 billion.

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U.S. Department of Commerce records show that in 2022 the trade deficit between the U.S. and Canada was $80.1 billion, with the U.S. importing $436.6 billion in Canadian goods and exporting $365.5 billion to Canada.

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In 2021, the trade deficit was $47.7 billion.

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— David Carrigg

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