Climate Change: Scientists confirm 2024 was Canada and the world's hottest year on record

Climate scientists released new data Friday confirming 2024 was the planet’s hottest year on record, as drought and wind fuelled wildfires continue to devastate Los Angeles.

It was a year marked by deadly floods, heat waves, drought, hurricanes and wildfires, including the one that burned much of Jasper, Alta.

Last year not only beat 2023’s record heat but soared to 1.6 C above pre-industrial levels, making 2024 the first calendar year to breach the 1.5 C warming threshold set out in the Paris Accord, according to several climate modelling agencies including Copernicus in Europe and the NOAA and Berkeley Earth in the U.S.

Similar agencies in the U.K. and in Japan also found a record was set, although numbers vary slightly.

Robert Rohde, chief scientist with Berkeley Earth, told Postmedia the national annual average temperature in Canada during 2024 slightly exceeded the same averages for 2010 and 2023 to set a record.

Scientists say uncertainty still remains about whether the short-term acceleration will become a longer-term trend.

“The abrupt new records set in 2023 and 2024 join other evidence that recent global warming appears to be moving faster than expected,” said Rhode.

“Already, though, the Paris Agreement target of staying below 1.5 C is unobtainable, and the long-term average will pass this milestone within the next five to 10 years.”

Scientists at both agencies said the heat can be partly attributed to the El Ni?o warming of the central Pacific, however the main driver continues to be human activities.

Samantha Burgess, strategic climate lead at Copernicus, said the primary reason for these record temperatures is the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from the burning of coal, oil and gas.

“As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, temperatures continue to increase, including in the ocean, sea levels continue to rise, and glaciers and ice sheets continue to melt,” she said.

Each of the past 10 years was among the 10 warmest years on record, Copernicus noted.

Burgess called it extremely likely that Earth will overshoot the 1.5-degree threshold, but called the Paris Agreement “extraordinarily important international policy” that nations around the world should remain committed to.

Scientists at Berkeley also said reductions in low cloud cover and man-made sulphur aerosol pollution are likely to have played a significant additional role in recent warming.

In 2024, extreme weather was observed worldwide, including severe storms, floods, waves, drought and wildfires, with prolonged dry periods creating conditions conducive to wildfires, the Copernicus report said.

As for wildfire carbon emissions, Bolivia and Venezuela recorded their highest levels on record, while Canada hit its second highest level, according to the report.

The report also notes that levels of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane continue to rise in the atmosphere. Levels of CO2 are now over 422 parts per million compared with under 380 ppm in 2005, while methane increased in 2024 to 1,897 parts per billion compared with under 1,750 ppb in 2005.

This is all like watching the end of “a dystopian sci-fi film,” said a University of Pennsylvania climate scientist, Michael Mann. “We are now reaping what we’ve sown.”

The record heat declaration comes Friday as much of L.A. continued to be scorched from five wildfires. As of Friday morning, at least 10 people had died, and more than 10,000 structures, including houses, apartment buildings and businesses, had been lost. It’s a catastrophe scientists say was made worse because of ocean heat and drought linked to climate change.

Berkeley Earth estimates that 2025 will likely be the third-warmest year on record, due to an expected cooling pattern in the equatorial Pacific.

ticrawford@postmedia.com

With files from The Associated Press